Are current climate commitments enough to prevent catastrophic warming?

The Emissions Gap Report 2024 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) provides a critical update on the difference between current global emissions and the reductions needed to meet the Paris Agreement targets. Released under the title “No more hot air … please!”, the report warns that climate action must accelerate significantly to maintain the possibility of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. 

Current emissions and the widening gap 

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached 57.1 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent in 2023, marking a 1.3% increase from the previous year. The report underscores that G20 countries, responsible for 77% of global emissions, play a decisive role in meeting global climate targets. UNEP’s projections reveal that to align with a 1.5°C warming limit, emissions must fall by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. Current national climate commitments fall short of these targets, with the world instead on a trajectory toward 2.6°C warming by the end of the century. 

National commitments and G20 actions 

Most countries have updated their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which outline their emissions reduction targets, but the collective ambition remains insufficient. UNEP highlights that G20 countries have made uneven progress, with seven key members yet to reach their peak emissions. To keep on track, these countries need to adopt more stringent policies and commit to ambitious NDC targets with sector-specific goals. The report emphasizes that this challenge requires global cooperation, particularly from these major emitters. 

Technological and policy solutions 

Advances in renewable energy, particularly in solar and wind, offer significant potential for emission reductions. According to the report, solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy could account for 27% of the emissions cuts required by 2030. Additionally, improved forestry management, such as reducing deforestation and boosting reforestation, could account for around 20% of reductions by 2035. UNEP suggests that achieving these outcomes will require a coordinated “whole-of-government” approach, backed by substantial financial investment, particularly in developing economies where infrastructure is still emerging. 

Financial support and international cooperation 

For developing nations, meeting these ambitious targets will depend on enhanced support and transformation of international financial systems. UNEP calls for substantial increases in climate financing, with private-sector involvement and systemic financial reforms. The report estimates that to meet climate goals, global climate investments will need to rise by up to $2.1 trillion annually. This funding must prioritize emerging and developing economies, where the investment gap is greatest. 

Sectoral targets and investment needs 

Sectoral transformations in energy, forestry, transportation, and industry are essential. The report provides benchmarks and investment requirements for each sector and urges nations to incorporate these targets in their next NDCs. Importantly, UNEP stresses that these goals should align with broader national development priorities, such as economic growth and sustainable job creation. 

Immediate action required 

UNEP’s report indicates that implementing current climate policies would likely lead to a global temperature rise of 3.1°C. In contrast, full implementation of pledged emissions reductions could limit warming to about 2.6°C, with the most optimistic targets bringing this closer to 1.9°C. The report warns that any further delay will double the required rate of emissions reduction between 2030 and 2035, creating a far steeper challenge.