Is Trump about to end regulation of greenhouse gas emissions?

The entirety of the legal infrastructure that classes greenhouse gas emissions as a pollutant may be undone by removing one ruling.

The Trump administration appears to be taking steps to dismantle federal regulation of greenhouse gas emissions by targeting the 2009 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) endangerment finding.

This landmark determination, which established that greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare, serves as the legal foundation for federal climate policies under the Clean Air Act.

Its potential repeal would have sweeping consequences for climate regulations, industry standards, and America’s role in global climate commitments.

The EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding was based on overwhelming scientific evidence linking greenhouse gas emissions to climate change and associated public health risks.

The finding enabled the EPA to regulate emissions from vehicles, power plants, and industrial sources.

It has been reaffirmed by courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court, and further solidified by legislative measures like the Inflation Reduction Act, which codified greenhouse gases as pollutants under the Clean Air Act. Experts have long regarded the finding as the bedrock of U.S. climate policy.

Michael Greenstone, founding director of the University of Chicago's Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth, has likened it to a “Jenga piece of climate policy,” suggesting that removing it could collapse an entire framework of emissions regulations.

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How has Trump moved to repeal the 2009 endangerment finding?

On his first day in office, President Trump issued an executive order directing the EPA to review the endangerment finding’s legality and applicability.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has since urged the administration to repeal it, a move cheered by some conservative groups but opposed by many in the energy sector.

Jeffrey Holmstead, a former EPA official under George W. Bush, noted that some fossil fuel companies actually prefer regulatory certainty over the chaos that repeal might bring.

Removing the endangerment finding could expose businesses to a patchwork of state regulations and lawsuits, complicating long-term investment planning.

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Is it possible to repeal the endangerment finding?

Overturning the endangerment finding would be fraught with legal and scientific obstacles:

• Scientific consensus: The body of evidence linking greenhouse gas emissions to climate change has only strengthened since 2009. Any move to reverse the finding would need to disprove or undermine this consensus, a near-impossible task given mounting climate impacts such as record heat waves, wildfires, and extreme weather events.
• Legal precedents: Courts have repeatedly upheld the EPA’s authority to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. Any reversal would face immediate and vigorous legal challenges from environmental groups, state attorneys general, and even businesses that have already adjusted to existing regulations.
• Legislative barriers: Provisions in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act explicitly classify greenhouse gases as pollutants, adding another layer of legal protection to the finding.

What will happen if Trump repeals the endangerment finding?

Surprisingly, key players in the energy sector, including some petroleum companies and utilities, have voiced concerns about repealing the endangerment finding. Without a federal framework, states could impose their own regulations, creating a fragmented and unpredictable regulatory landscape.

Meanwhile, environmental groups and climate advocates have denounced the move. Vickie Patton, general counsel at the Environmental Defense Fund, called any repeal effort “reckless, unlawful, and a direct threat to Americans suffering from climate pollution.”

Should the Trump administration succeed in overturning the endangerment finding, the consequences could be profound:

1. Deregulation of greenhouse gases: Without the finding, the EPA would lose its ability to regulate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, effectively nullifying federal climate action.
2. Increased legal uncertainty: Companies could face a surge of state-level regulations and lawsuits, leading to compliance confusion and market instability.
3. Public health risks: Reduced regulations could lead to higher emissions, worsening air quality and increasing health risks associated with pollution and extreme weather events.

How likely is it that Trump will repeal the endangerment finding?

The Trump administration has not yet made a final decision on the endangerment finding, but its repeal would be one of the most aggressive attacks on climate policy in U.S. history.

Given the legal, scientific, and political hurdles, experts predict a prolonged battle if the administration moves forward with its plan.

With the stakes so high, all eyes are on how the EPA and White House will proceed—and how the courts will respond to what is sure to be a fiercely contested issue.

By Jed Thomas

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