Is Climate Change Natural?

One of the biggest “defences” of climate change is that it is natural. The Earth’s climate has fluctuated hugely over time and yet it is still here, say climate change sceptics. They’re certainly correct in that the climate has changed in the past. But is it correct to assume climate change isn’t a concern because of historical fluctuation?

Yes and no

The answer can be broken down into two halves. Yes – climate change is natural. No – the current rate of climate change is not natural. To prove this, researchers at the Stockholm Resilience centre and Australian National University have developed an equation to calculate human impact on the earth.

The ‘Anthropocene equation’ takes into account astronomical and geophysical factors that have caused climate change in the past, and determines that human activity is actually causing climate change to accelerate 170 times faster than what would be “natural”.

Natural forces’ magnitude “less than human impact”

“In the equation, astronomical and geophysical forces tend to zero because of their slow nature or rarity, as do internal dynamics, for now. All these forces still exert pressure, but currently on orders of magnitude less than human impact,” explains Owen Gaffney co-author of the paper.

It’s estimated the natural forces cause a change of around 0.01 degrees Celsius per century. In contrast, the last 200 years – since carbon dioxide levels have risen drastically – have seen an increase of 0.8 degrees Celsius. 0.4 degrees Celsius per century, compared to 0.01 – it’s 40 times the “natural” rate.

Getting worse

With greenhouse gas emissions increasing even more, co-author Will Steffen suggests the atmosphere’s temperature is now increasing at a rate of 1.7 degrees Celsius per century, over the past 45 years – 170 times the natural rate.

“We are not saying the astronomical forces of our solar system or geological processes have disappeared, but in terms of their impact in such a short period of time they are now negligible compared with our own influence,” Steffen explains.

Slowing the change

When it comes to slowing climate change back down, we clearly need to reduce human impact on the environment. And there are a number of ways to do it. Emissions from power stations are one area where improvement is required and Environment Advisors are a big part of that.

‘A Day in the life of…’ explores the role of Environment Advisor Simon Render in regulation compliance and emissions monitoring at E.ON’s many power stations.