Could Burning All Remaining Fossil Fuels Lead to Mass Extinction?

It is often argued by supporters of the oil and gas industry and opponents of renewable energy that the need to ween ourselves off fossil fuels is not as pressing as many claim, since a significant amount of resources remain on the planet. However, a new study from the University of Victoria in Canada may well have put paid to that argument.

The paper has estimated what would happen to the world’s climate if no further action were taken to mitigate the effects of climate change – and found catastrophic results, both in terms of temperature and precipitation, which would render many parts of the planet uninhabitable. As such, the paper provides new impetus to the feeling that the time for change is now when it comes to our energy production and consumption habits.

What the report says

The paper, which was published in the journal Nature Climate Change, projected the effect that burning all remaining supplies of fossil fuels on Earth would have on its environment. Since it’s very hard to determine exactly how many reserves remain, the study used the figure at the lower end of estimates – five trillion tonnes of emitted carbon – and extrapolated what would happen to our planet if we continued to consume it without making any effort to limit emissions.

The results were astonishing. Across the planet, average temperatures would rise by 10°C, while in more vulnerable zones such as the Arctic, they could jump up by as much as 20°C. This would undoubtedly result in the melting of the polar ice caps and the rising of sea levels across the world, submerging countless lower-lying lands.

Meanwhile, heatwaves in hotter countries would be exacerbated to uninhabitable levels and rainfall would drop substantially in the Mediterranean, Central America, Australia, Africa and the Amazon. Elsewhere, tropical regions in the Pacific Ocean would see a fourfold increase in precipitation.

What the experts say

Lead author on the study, Katarzyna Tokarska, said the paper should be regarded as a wake-up call as to our obligations to take affirmative action against climate change.

“It is really important to know what would happen if we don’t take any action to mitigate climate change,” she said. “Even though we have the Paris climate change agreement, so far there hasn’t been any action. [The research] is a warning message.”

Meanwhile, Camille Parmesan, a professor in marine life at Plymouth University, acknowledged that the findings were taken from an extreme scenario – but affirmed that even a moderate increase in global temperatures could have devastating effects.

“The temperature and precipitation changes [the report] project… are way out of bounds for several ecosystems. This is no big surprise, since even what is viewed as ‘moderate’ warming will cause loss of Arctic sea ice, and hence the entire ecosystem adapted to sea ice,” she told Carbon Brief.  

“Grasses didn’t evolve until CO2 was low enough that grasses could out-compete trees. At least one research group has predicted loss of grasslands at very high CO2… [It is] likely these types of extreme climate changes would lead to a 6th mass extinction event.”

What can be done

Over the past 30 years, sea levels have risen by 0.2m. Some reports indicate that even if the world does meet the target of 2°C agreed upon at the Paris COP21 talks, levels could rise by a staggering 6m more. Clearly, action above and beyond existing targets is needed – and it’s needed now.

The good news is that the renewable energy sector appears to be thriving right now, with investment and energy production at all-time highs. This is especially true in developing nations, such as China, Jamaica and Uruguay (relevant to GDP). Surprisingly, more developed parts of the world, such as Europe, have fallen behind in recent years.

In order to avoid cataclysmic consequences, the whole world must work together to abolish fossil fuels once and for all and transition to renewable forms of energy production. Fortunately, the clean energy revolution appears to have already started.