How do we monitor climate tipping points effectively?

Besides global average surface temperatures, successful climate action is going to need more knowledge of of how close we're getting to certain crucial tipping points - but how do we monitor them properly?

One of the many paradoxes of climate action is that we need to avoid crossing tipping points but we can’t know when we’ll cross them – until we’ve already crossed them.

Monitoring climate tipping points—critical thresholds where small changes can lead to significant and often irreversible shifts in the Earth's climate system—is a complex yet essential endeavour.

Advancements in technology, data analysis, and modelling have enhanced our ability to detect early warning signals (EWS) of such transitions, but challenges remain.¹

What are the Early Warning Signals (EWS) of climate tipping points?

EWS are indicators that a system is approaching a tipping point. In climate systems, these include:

1. Critical slowing down: As a system nears a tipping point, it recovers more slowly from perturbations, leading to increased autocorrelation in time series data.
2. Increased variance: Fluctuations in system variables become more pronounced as stability decreases.
3. Skewness and kurtosis: Alterations in the distribution of data points can signal an impending transition.

These statistical measures have been applied to paleoclimate data to identify past climate shifts and are now used in real-time monitoring.²

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Are we monitoring tipping points?

Satellite remote sensing offers a unique capability to monitor potential climate tipping points across various scales. By providing continuous, high-resolution data on key climate variables, satellites enable the detection of early warning signals associated with tipping phenomena.³

In the United Kingdom, an £81 million ($106 million) program has been launched by the government-funded Advanced Research and Invention Agency to develop early warning systems for climate tipping points. This initiative aims to create an alarm system that can alert policymakers and the public to imminent critical thresholds in the climate system.

What are the challenges of monitoring tipping points?

Despite technological advancements, several challenges persist:

1. Complexity of climate systems: The intricate interplay of various components in the climate system makes it difficult to identify tipping points accurately.
2. Data limitations: While remote sensing provides extensive data, certain regions and variables remain under-observed, leading to potential blind spots.
3. Uncertainty in models: Predictive models may not fully capture the nonlinear dynamics associated with tipping points, resulting in uncertainties.

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Are these technologies being used in practice?

A comprehensive review of early warning signals across various scientific fields has highlighted both the potential and limitations of current methodologies. The study emphasizes the need for continued research to improve the reliability of EWS in predicting tipping points.²

Additionally, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has published a report reviewing evidence that overshooting 1.5°C may push the earth over several tipping points, leading to irreversible and severe changes in the climate system.⁴

Monitoring climate tipping points is a complex but essential endeavor. While current technologies and methodologies provide valuable insights, ongoing research and investment are crucial to enhance our predictive capabilities. By improving monitoring systems, we can better anticipate abrupt climate changes and implement effective mitigation strategies to safeguard our planet's future.

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¹ Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Lenton et al. PNAS. 2008.

² Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological and human systems. Dakos et al. Earth System Dynamics. 2024.

³ Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Lenton et al. Nature Communications. 2024.

⁴ Climate Tipping Points: Insights for Effective Policy Action. OECD. 2022.