New report updates dire forecasts for flooding and drought in the UK

Recently, The Wildlife Trusts published their progress report for 2023-4, Embracing Nature: Climate Change Adaptation at The Wildlife Trusts. This report builds on their ongoing commitment to address the dual crises of climate change and biodiversity loss by ensuring that the UK’s wildlife and natural habitats are resilient in the face of escalating climate impacts.  

After a year marked by record-breaking global temperatures and extreme weather events around the world, the UK experienced its second warmest year on record, with devastating storms and widespread flooding. These climate shifts have had profound impacts on wildlife across the UK, from marine heatwaves to extensive flooding that has further stressed ecosystems already reeling from the effects of past climate events. 

As such, The Wildlife Trusts have updated their projections of climate impacts on their nature reserves – and it’s a stark picture of what the future could hold. Under a scenario where global temperatures rise by 2°C by 2100, over half (57%) of all reserves could experience drops in river flows of more than 30% during periods of low flow and all reserves would be subject to changes in river flood magnitude between +10% and –10%. At 4°C, considered feasible by the IPCC within its ‘business as usual’ trajectory, paints an even bleaker picture, with all reserves suffering drops in river flows of more than 30% during low flow as well as increases in flood magnitudes in the west of the UK. 

These scenarios – and, it’s worth noting, every step along the way towards them – would wreak havoc on many of the critical ecosystems that the Trusts protect. In response to these projections, the report identifies drought as the most pressing threat to nature on the reserves, with 90% of conservation practitioners acknowledging its current negative impacts. Looking ahead, drought remains the top concern, followed closely by heatwaves and wildfires, underscoring the need for comprehensive drought planning and monitoring alongside traditional flood management strategies. 

The Wildlife Trusts are calling for a more ambitious approach from the UK Government, particularly in light of recent updates to the National Adaptation Programme, which the Trusts consider ‘disappointing’ as it ‘contained no new funding and lacked ambition.’ They are urging the new Labour Government to commit to at least £3 billion annually for nature-based adaptation solutions by 2030, restart essential support services for organizations, and shift the responsibility for adaptation policy to the Cabinet Office for better coordination across government.