How Has the Pandemic Affected Emissions in 2020?

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all facets of our lives in 2020, disrupting the routines and jobs of countless humans all over the world. But how has it impacted the planet? One of the most striking environmental implications of coronavirus has been its effect on emissions, with the weeks and months following the imposition of lockdown measures at the start of the year showing a marked drop-off in emissions of a variety of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.

Unfortunately, that silver lining of the pandemic appears to have vanished as suddenly as it appeared, with emissions from the later part of the year returning to levels resembling normality as quarantine restrictions were lifted across the globe. In fact, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) went as far as to dub the respite in emissions nothing more than “a tiny blip”, while concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere are still projected to reach unprecedented levels in 2020.

Early encouragement

When Britain entered full lockdown at the end of March, activity and industry throughout the country came to something of a standstill. Offices remained closed, factories shut down and roadways were clear of passenger vehicles. It was a similar story across the entire world, with the pandemic spelling uncertainty for a stricken oil industry and, at the height of lockdown, over one third of the world’s population (including the entirety of India’s 1.35 billion people) having their movements restricted in some form or other.

The gains were immediately noticeable. Emissions fell by an average of 26% across the world, with global CO2 emissions down by 17%. That’s an unprecedented drop in carbon output. In the UK, air quality improved and noise pollution fell, with Green Party co-leader Sian Berry claiming the pandemic could provide a blueprint for a cleaner future: “It has shown everybody that there is the possibility of a different world. With the right policies in place you can make such a big change and almost start from a new starting point, [which] is really something,” said Ms Berry.

Short-lived relief

Unfortunately, the impressive drop-off in emissions engendered at the outset of the pandemic was not to last. By mid-June, the reductions were a mere 5% compared to 17% two months previous, signalling that a return to pre-pandemic levels was only a matter of time. The bad news was compounded when it was discovered that carbon levels were still set to reach an all-time high in 2020, despite many industries having shut down operations for much of the year.

Crucially, not all of them did so, even though there was little or no demand for their services. One especially controversial sector was aviation, which is responsible for around 2% of all CO2 emissions globally. Even though aeroplanes were empty, airlines still sent them off on their journeys so as not to lose out on their landing strip spots at destination airports. Such profligacy and wanton pollution rightly outraged environmentalists, who pointed to the fact that even at the height of emissions reductions, they still only fell to 2006 levels. That’s far less than the drop-off required to ensure the world does not exceed a global temperature hike of 2°C, meaning there is much work ahead if the objectives of the Paris climate summit are to be achieved.