How Long Will the Coronavirus Pollution Drop Last?

One note of optimism among the almost relentlessly negative news surrounding the current COVID-19 crisis is the effect that the virus is having on our airways. With more people confined to their homes and less economic activity taking place, the combustion of damaging fuels such as oil, gas and coal has been on the decline in many countries around the world.

This has sparked a downturn in air pollution experienced in nations as distant and diverse as Italy and India, China and Canada. But while the current drop-off in pollution concentrations is a useful window into what a low-carbon future might look like, experts are warning that the benefits will only be witnessed as long as lockdown measures are in place. When we finally emerge from this crisis and the economy begins to recover, there could be a dramatic surge in emissions which could completely offset the gains made in recent weeks and months.

Temporary reprieve

Technology has advanced to such a point that we now have a better understanding of the cleanliness of the air we breathe than ever before. But while small sensor technology offers benefits for local air quality monitoring, it also brings challenges, most notably when compiling cross-border composite pictures of air quality. Thankfully, satellites are able to make up this shortfall in the available data, offering accuracy to even parts per billion concentrations of the most pervasive pollutants.

Data gathered by NASA has shown that Wuhan – which was the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak – has seen drastic improvements in its concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over the last two months. The Chinese government imposed drastic quarantining measures which appear to have been successful in curbing the spread of the virus, but also came with the secondary benefit that air pollution over the city (and other areas of the country) has markedly improved. Similar results have been witnessed in the air quality in cities other parts of the world as well, including European metropoles such as Brussels, Madrid, Milan and Paris.

A double-edged sword?

While the outlook for air pollution during the COVID-19 crisis is currently a solitary silver lining in an otherwise outright catastrophe, experts have warned that the benefits will only be experienced as long as the lockdown measures are in place. Indeed, the economic crisis of 2007 saw a brief downturn in emissions at its outset, before a sharp uptick in pollution as economies across the world did their best to bounce back. Something similar could occur with the current reprieve.

What’s more, experts are predicting that coronavirus could have the biggest impact on global economies since the Great Depression. As such, there will be fewer funds available to invest in renewable technologies – the real-long term solution to the air quality issue – while environmental restrictions are also in danger of being rolled back in order to bolster business, as has already been witnessed in the US. As such, we must be wary of not learning the lessons that the current crisis teaches and reverting to even more polluting ways after the fact.