Will Climate Change Create Climate Refugees in Parts of the Middle East and North Africa?

A new study undertaken by researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany and the Cyprus Institute in the country’s capital city of Nicosia has predicted disturbing increases in temperature for residents of northern Africa and the Middle East.

Director at Max Planck Jos Lelieveld and his team found that even if all of the nations of the world comply with the promises made at the COP21 talks in Paris to maintain global warming under 2°C, those regions could potentially become uninhabitable for human life, leading to a mass exodus of climate refugees.

Climate Models Corroborate the Past and Predict the Future

Using a sophisticated computer modelling programme, which combines weather monitoring with climate change prediction software, Lelieveld and his team compared real-life data from 1986 to 2005 with 26 different modelling packages. The accuracy with which the software predicted the temperatures fluctuations and global warming phenomena that actually happened gave them the confidence to put their faith in predictions about the future.

They mapped out two different scenarios. In the first (named RCP4.5), the world’s nations kept their word and stopped global warming rising above 2°C, due to greenhouse gas emissions (GhG) falling after 2040. In the second scenario, named RCP8.5, emissions continued to rise at the same pace as now, earning it the moniker “business-as-usual scenario”. In this scenario, world temperatures were expected to increase by as much as 4°C.

The results from both projections were not encouraging. Even in RCP4.5, the temperature of sub-Mediterranean regions increased by more than 100%, meaning that by the middle of the 21^st century, temperatures could climb to 46°C during daylight hours and would not fall below 30°C at night. By 2100, temperatures could reach 50°C and heatwaves could occur ten times more frequently than they currently do.

Excessive Heat Leading to Mass Migration

Earlier this year, it was suggested climate change might be an underappreciated factor in the refugee crisis gripping Europe. If the modelling scenarios provided by Lelieveld and his team are correct, such migration won’t be a theoretical possibility – it’ll be almost an absolute certainty.

“In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy,” explained Lelieveld. “Climate change will significantly worsen the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa. Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate.”

Meanwhile, Lelieveld’s counterpart at the Cyprus Institute was equally pessimistic in his appraisal of the results of the study. “If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections,” he said.

If the models are correct, we must act to curb global warming even beyond the targets agreed upon in Paris if we are to stand any chance of avoiding rendering large parts of our planets completely uninhabitable.