Met Office Unveils ‘Game Changing’ Weather Analysis Tool  

The Met Office, the world leading authority in weather forecasting and observation, has released a new tool designed to enable utilities, hedge funds and energy traders to interpret the weather more effectively. Named Decider, the groundbreaking product makes it easier to analyse future weather conditions, providing a probabilistic breakdown of the likelihood of various scenarios. Users of the tool are able to take an objective evaluation of the risks associated with each and prepare accordingly.

Far removed from the deterministic forecasts consumed by the general public, Decider works by condensing large volumes of diffuse information into 29 weather regimes across Europe, each of which has a specific set of characteristics. Data on temperature, pressure, rainfall, cloud cover, and wind speed and direction, is displayed in a clear map and table format. Decider’s unique analysis acts as a key to deciphering the data, providing their percentage probability and laying the foundations for an assessment of the local weather patterns embedded within each of the wider regimes.

Three different versions of the product are currently available (a 15 day forecast updated once or twice per day, a 30 day forecast updated weekly, or a daily conditioned alternative of the 30 day version updated once or twice per day) and can be taken either separately or in conjunction to provide a seamless view of the weather for up to a month ahead. The Met Office has been trialling Decider for over a year with several of its long standing clients, all of whom have since subscribed to the most comprehensive package.

Commenting on Decider, Dr. Matt Huddleston, Principal Climate Change Consultant at the Met Office said, “Decider has been developed specifically for businesses which face the greatest weather-derived risks, offering fuller and faster information about weather patterns.

“No other tool offers long-term daily forecasts in this way. By providing traders, utilities and others who buy and sell energy with a spread of likely outcomes, Decider provides a competitive advantage that will help them stay a step ahead of the pack. We think that it will be a game changer for the industry.”

“Decider can be used to allow traders to take multiple positions within the market in order to hedge risk or to exploit less likely weather scenarios to maximise opportunities within the market.”

Dave Parker, Head of Meteorology at EDF Energy, added, “We have been trialling Decider for over a year now and it has revolutionised the way that we interpret the weather. Its value stretches across the entire business, and has applications as diverse as forecasting our customers’ energy demand to understanding weather risks affecting our network.”